I know I just changed gears from poker to sportsbetting, so I think it would be appropriate to outline my strategy.
I am going to be betting money lines and parlaying them together to add value. My goal is ambitious for investors, but kinda modest when you start talking in terms of poker and gambling. My goal is to return 10% per month. I am starting with $83. Yes, a strange starting bankroll, but I dont want to get into why it is such a weird amount. If I can prove to handle the ups and downs and continue to trend upwards, I will add a few hundred periodically to boost my roll. I think a big bet will be approx one third of my bankroll and I do not want to bet more than that. If i lose a bet of 1/3 my bankroll, I will readjust my bet size so I am always betting 1/3 and therefore reducing my risk of ruin.
A 10% per month goal is pretty ambitious and I like to beat every goal that is given to me, but I am going to try to use this goal as a measuring stick to keep myself on track. No need to break the bank every day and if I can stay on target I will set myself up for a very nice return. Something where you can retire within a few years. So the power is there, now it is time to execute the plan.
I am looking at the games tomorrow and only see one worth considering. I like the Jazz. Toronto is playing late in Sacramento and then flies in to Utah to take on the Jazz. The Jazz have the night off and should be well rested. The Raptors are a stronger team than I would normally like to bet against, but they are without Chris Bosh and are playing the last game of a 5 game road trip. I just dont see Toronto playing well the 2nd game of back-to-back road games. The Jazz proved just how hard that can be by beating Boston on the road, then losing to the Nets the following night. I like the Jazz and believe I can get some solid value from a small bet here. After a nice win tonight, I do not need to make any bets until thursday when the NCAA tournament gives me a ton of great opportunities to parlay some huge money lines...but i think this play is strong enough to warrant a small $5 bet. With my roll being so modest, I only need to make about 25 cents this early on to make my goal for the day.
When I wake up and check the lines, I will make my bet and post the ticket.
Oh, and I forgot about the women's NCAA tourney...this could be a really profitable month, or could bust me...no many upsets in the women's game...so the 1 seeds are pretty much guaranteed to get to the sweet 16.
This morning I got a bit ahead of myself. I saw all sorts of tennis bets, but you cannot parlay them. I guess thats ok because the money line yields a nice 8%, so I made a few $5 bets. I believe a few of them will come in before the Jazz game tips off, so I can always bumps my bet on the jazz. I will copy and paste my picks in here after I get home from work.
I know this is a great time of year to bet money lines with the NCAA Tourney, NIT, and the women's tourney too. I also like that there is tennis going on. I need to figure out what sports are being played and what times of the year so I can figure out where I need to be each month. I know college football will yield some opportunities, I just dont know how profitable they will be.
Sunday, March 16, 2008
Change...
Ok, poker is going to take a backseat. I just dont have the time or desire to play right now. It helped me pay off all my debt so I am grateful for it, but I am going to make a small deposit into a sportsbook and track my progress here.
My plan is to grind out a small %age every month. I am going to post my picks here, my wager and return. I wasnt able to fund my account yesterday, but I had a nice bet that would have come in. a 3 team money line parlay which would have yielded me about 36%. That would have been a great way to start my project. I figure if I havef success I can deposit more cash.
Today, I am going to try to get some cash into my account and i will be taking the moneyline on the dallas mavericks and the denver nuggets. I like the western conference contenders right now because they are playing for the playoffs and the teams that are out of the picture dont really care anymore. If anything, they are packing it in because they are positioning themselves for the lottery.
tonight i think I will parlay the two teams and bet another unit on the mavericks money line as well.
AFter much runnign around, i deposited 69 bucks into an account and got a 21% bonus. So, i bet it all tonight on a 2 teamer...i bet 1/3 of my account on a 2 teamer and the 2/3 on dallas's money line..here are how the bets shake out:
Wager Description Wager Amounts Result
Mar 16 4:53pm 2 Team Parlay - Pending 27.83 to win 1.71
1. Basketball - Dallas Mavericks - moneyline (-3400)
for the entire game held on Mar 16 at 5:05pm [pending]
2. Basketball - Denver Nuggets - moneyline (-3200)
for the entire game held on Mar 16 at 8:05pm [pending]
Mar 16 4:54pm Basketball - Pending 55.66 to win 1.64
1. Basketball - Dallas Mavericks - moneyline (-3400)
for the entire game held on Mar 16 at 5:05pm [pending]
Both my picks came in. My return for today is 4.01%. Not quite the return I was looking for, but I would have added Federer in tennis and bumped up my return a bit. Over the past few days, I have made 2 other bets that I was not able to make because I couldnt fund my account. I would have a nice return on those as well. I normally would not have bet my entire account today, but I was a little frustrated that I wasnt able to make those bets the other night and I was so confident in the games tonight. I could have parlayed them both for my whole account, and probably should have, but i felt that it was a bit too much.
Come tourney time on thrusday, I will probably do a 4 teamer for about half my bankroll with all the number 1 seeds. then i will probably do an 8 teamer with all the #1 and #2 seeds and i will see how that pays...and then bet accordingly. this will be fun.
My plan is to grind out a small %age every month. I am going to post my picks here, my wager and return. I wasnt able to fund my account yesterday, but I had a nice bet that would have come in. a 3 team money line parlay which would have yielded me about 36%. That would have been a great way to start my project. I figure if I havef success I can deposit more cash.
Today, I am going to try to get some cash into my account and i will be taking the moneyline on the dallas mavericks and the denver nuggets. I like the western conference contenders right now because they are playing for the playoffs and the teams that are out of the picture dont really care anymore. If anything, they are packing it in because they are positioning themselves for the lottery.
tonight i think I will parlay the two teams and bet another unit on the mavericks money line as well.
AFter much runnign around, i deposited 69 bucks into an account and got a 21% bonus. So, i bet it all tonight on a 2 teamer...i bet 1/3 of my account on a 2 teamer and the 2/3 on dallas's money line..here are how the bets shake out:
Wager Description Wager Amounts Result
Mar 16 4:53pm 2 Team Parlay - Pending 27.83 to win 1.71
1. Basketball - Dallas Mavericks - moneyline (-3400)
for the entire game held on Mar 16 at 5:05pm [pending]
2. Basketball - Denver Nuggets - moneyline (-3200)
for the entire game held on Mar 16 at 8:05pm [pending]
Mar 16 4:54pm Basketball - Pending 55.66 to win 1.64
1. Basketball - Dallas Mavericks - moneyline (-3400)
for the entire game held on Mar 16 at 5:05pm [pending]
Both my picks came in. My return for today is 4.01%. Not quite the return I was looking for, but I would have added Federer in tennis and bumped up my return a bit. Over the past few days, I have made 2 other bets that I was not able to make because I couldnt fund my account. I would have a nice return on those as well. I normally would not have bet my entire account today, but I was a little frustrated that I wasnt able to make those bets the other night and I was so confident in the games tonight. I could have parlayed them both for my whole account, and probably should have, but i felt that it was a bit too much.
Come tourney time on thrusday, I will probably do a 4 teamer for about half my bankroll with all the number 1 seeds. then i will probably do an 8 teamer with all the #1 and #2 seeds and i will see how that pays...and then bet accordingly. this will be fun.
Saturday, March 08, 2008
March 8, 2008
I guess I am finally realizing that there is no room for poker right now. I made some good money playing and it helped me pay off my credit card debt, which now stands at ZERO!! I took some of my bankroll out, paid off my credit card, and lost the little bit that i had left. I have some FPPs on poker stars, but once those are gone I will not be playing poker any time soon.
I just am not cut out for the frustration. Today i played in the freerolls and played well. I was patient and chipped up to 2000 when I get AA, i raise 3xbb to 300 and dude pushes in late position...i call and he shows 77...he rivered the 7 and i was out. shortly after that in the 20k freeroll i get K9 on the button...i catch a K66 flop and bet half the pot...one caller, the BB and i knew he was on a draw...turn was a blank and i raised, he pushed i called and he tables 78d for the flush draw...of course he hits it on the river. later, he catches KK when I have JJ and i am out...so sick!
and, to top it off, i played in the 50k qualifier and i have A8 in the BB. 882 flopped and i bet half the pot and one caller, turn comes a 5, i bet and he calls...river was a blank and we get it all in and he turns over 85...thats the bullshit that drives me up the wall. i am gonna be playing some qualifers with my FPPs, but i am done with poker for a while...luck just not running my way.
I just am not cut out for the frustration. Today i played in the freerolls and played well. I was patient and chipped up to 2000 when I get AA, i raise 3xbb to 300 and dude pushes in late position...i call and he shows 77...he rivered the 7 and i was out. shortly after that in the 20k freeroll i get K9 on the button...i catch a K66 flop and bet half the pot...one caller, the BB and i knew he was on a draw...turn was a blank and i raised, he pushed i called and he tables 78d for the flush draw...of course he hits it on the river. later, he catches KK when I have JJ and i am out...so sick!
and, to top it off, i played in the 50k qualifier and i have A8 in the BB. 882 flopped and i bet half the pot and one caller, turn comes a 5, i bet and he calls...river was a blank and we get it all in and he turns over 85...thats the bullshit that drives me up the wall. i am gonna be playing some qualifers with my FPPs, but i am done with poker for a while...luck just not running my way.
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